President Donald Trump is approaching the 2026 midterm elections facing a political challenge on an issue Republicans have traditionally considered one of their strongest: the economy.

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 38% of registered voters believe Democrats would do a better job handling the economy, compared with 35% who favor Republicans. The Democratic lead is narrow, but it marks a notable shift in an area where Republicans have generally held an advantage.

The findings also come as Trump's overall approval rating has fallen to 33%, its lowest level of his current presidency, according to the same poll. With voters preparing to choose members of Congress in November, the numbers could create a difficult environment for Republicans seeking to maintain their congressional majorities.

The Economy Is Becoming a Political Weakness

The latest figures build on an earlier August Reuters/Ipsos poll that gave Democrats a 37% to 36% edge over Republicans on economic management. That survey marked the first time Democrats had taken the lead on the question in nearly a decade.

The shift comes amid persistent concerns about the cost of living. For many Americans, economic performance is measured less by national statistics than by what they encounter when buying groceries, filling their cars or paying household bills.

A Washington Post/Ipsos poll conducted in July found that 65% of Americans considered groceries unaffordable, while more than half said the economy and high prices would be important factors in their midterm voting decisions.

That gives Democrats an opportunity to challenge Republicans on an issue that has historically helped the GOP attract voters. However, the polling does not necessarily indicate that Americans have embraced the Democratic economic agenda. Rather, it suggests that Republicans' advantage on the economy has narrowed considerably.

Higher Energy Costs Add to the Pressure

The economic debate is also unfolding against the backdrop of the U.S. conflict with Iran, which has disrupted global oil markets and contributed to higher gasoline prices.

Reuters reported that U.S. gasoline prices had risen substantially since the conflict began. Trump has defended the increase, arguing that the economic cost is justified by the need to confront Iran and prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

But higher fuel prices can create a political problem for an administration that has made affordability a central part of its economic message. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only about one in five Americans believed the war had been worth its cost, while most expected U.S. involvement to continue for some time.

The issue therefore extends beyond foreign policy. Rising energy costs can quickly become a household concern, giving voters another reason to judge the administration through their personal finances.

A Warning for Republicans, Not an Election Prediction

The polling should not be treated as a forecast of November's results. Congressional elections are determined by individual races across states and districts, rather than by national approval figures alone.

Republicans also retain an advantage on immigration, although that lead has narrowed significantly compared with the beginning of Trump's presidency.

For Democrats, the challenge will be turning dissatisfaction with the Republican economic record into actual electoral support. For Republicans, meanwhile, the task is to persuade voters that their policies can deliver stronger economic conditions despite continuing concerns about prices.

With the midterms approaching, the economy could become one of the defining battlegrounds of the campaign. The latest polling suggests that Republicans can no longer assume voters will automatically trust them more on economic issues.

For Trump and the GOP, that may be the clearest warning yet: the economy remains central to the 2026 election, but it is no longer an uncontested Republican advantage.