The Final Week Before the 2026 Midterms: Rising Costs, Trump’s Approval Ratings and the Battle for Congress

With Election Day approaching on November 3, the 2026 U.S. midterm elections are shaping up as a critical test of President Donald Trump’s administration and the Republican Party’s hold on Congress. Voters will decide whether Republicans retain their narrow majorities or Democrats gain control of one or both chambers, potentially changing the direction of federal policy for the remainder of Trump’s term.

The campaign is unfolding against a backdrop of rising household expenses, contentious immigration policies, concerns about health care affordability and dissatisfaction with the country’s political direction. Although individual congressional races will turn on local issues and candidates, several national concerns are influencing the contest.

The Cost of Living Takes Center Stage

Affordability has emerged as one of the election’s defining issues. Reuters reported on October 20 that approximately half of voters surveyed in a Reuters/Ipsos poll identified the cost of living as the most important factor influencing their congressional vote.

Higher expenses for housing, groceries, health care and fuel are placing economic policy at the center of the campaign. Gasoline prices have been particularly sensitive to developments in the conflict involving Iran, adding pressure to household budgets and complicating the administration’s economic message.

Republicans are defending their record on taxes and economic policy, while Democrats are emphasizing the need to reduce everyday expenses. The competing arguments reflect a broader question for voters: whether the administration’s policies have improved their financial circumstances.

An Associated Press-NORC poll published in October also found widespread dissatisfaction with the economy and the cost of living. However, dissatisfaction with the governing party does not automatically translate into support for its opponents, leaving both parties with the challenge of persuading undecided voters that their proposals offer credible solutions.

Health Care and Immigration Remain Divisive

Health care is another major concern, particularly as voters weigh insurance costs and access to treatment. A KFF poll published October 6 found that Democrats held an advantage over Republicans in voters’ trust to handle health care costs, with 42% trusting Democrats compared with 22% who trusted Republicans.

The debate also reflects disagreements over federal health spending and insurance assistance. Republicans have defended their legislative priorities, including tax measures, while Democrats have criticized reductions in health-related spending and argued for stronger protections for patients.

Immigration presents a different political challenge. The Trump administration has highlighted stricter border enforcement, while critics have questioned enforcement methods and raised concerns about deaths involving federal immigration agents. The dispute has intensified partisan divisions, particularly in competitive districts where candidates must appeal to voters with differing views on border security and civil liberties.

Control of Congress Could Hinge on a Few Races

The congressional arithmetic leaves little room for either party to lose ground. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, while their Senate majority is also under pressure.

According to Reuters’ October 23 election analysis, Democrats need a net gain of four seats to control either chamber. In the House, roughly 40 races are considered competitive, making a relatively small number of districts potentially decisive.

The Senate contest presents a different challenge. Democrats must defend vulnerable seats while winning several Republican-held contests. Races in states including Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa and Texas are among those receiving attention because their outcomes could determine which party controls the chamber.

Redistricting has also influenced the electoral map. Reuters reported that new congressional maps in nine states have generally provided Republicans with an advantage in more districts than Democrats, although competitive races and voter sentiment could still alter the final outcome.

Technology, Abortion and Election Security Add Complexity

Beyond the economy and immigration, technology policy is becoming a local campaign issue. The expansion of artificial intelligence data centers has raised concerns about electricity costs, water consumption and the demands placed on local infrastructure. In some competitive races, candidates are facing pressure to explain whether developers should bear more of the costs associated with new facilities.

Abortion policy remains significant following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision overturning the federal constitutional right to abortion. Its political impact varies by state, but candidates’ positions on reproductive rights could influence closely contested Senate races.

Election security is another focus as officials prepare for potential misinformation, cyberattacks and threats against election workers. Reuters has reported that state and local officials are expanding public outreach and preparing legal responses to possible disputes over voting procedures. Claims of widespread fraud should be assessed against available evidence; investigations have found that illegal voting is rare.

A Test of Political Confidence

The midterms will determine more than the leadership of Congress. A change in control could reshape legislative priorities, congressional investigations and the administration’s ability to advance its agenda. If Republicans retain both chambers, they would have a stronger position to pursue their policy goals. If Democrats gain control of either chamber, negotiations and oversight of the administration could become more contentious.

The outcome remains uncertain. National polling provides insight into voters’ concerns, but individual races depend on turnout, candidate quality, local conditions and the distribution of support across congressional districts and states.

As Election Day approaches, the central question is whether voters will reward the governing party, demand a change in direction or divide their support between the two parties. The answer will help determine the political balance in Washington and shape the legislative battles ahead.